Mike Simonato, Ontario. Presenter: “Investing for the Long Term”, presented to the Feb. 6, 2021 International Online Forum, you can watch by CLICKING HERE.
NOTE The following is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.
For me, these next 6 weeks will be crucial in trying to determine a game plan for 2022. Here is what I’m watching:
- 4th Quarter Earnings and maybe most important is forward guidance. What do the big companies see for 2022?
- By the end of Feb, we should have a clearer picture re Covid. Is it on the way out or will there be more variants of concern.
- General Business environment. ie Labor issues, Supply chain issues, Further restrictions, Interest rate hikes, Debt loads being carried etc Bankruptcies/ Closures
- Global conditions
- 4th Quarter earnings will show who has been able to navigate and adapt to these challenging conditions and guidance will give an indication as to who will survive the pandemic and possibly thrive as we exit this nightmare
- Currently, the Covid numbers are at all-time highs in many parts of the world including daily case counts, hospitalizations, etc By the end of Feb I hope we see a notable decline and hopefully some sign that this pandemic is on the way out which may lead to a strong recovery and an exceptional trading opportunity
- General Business environment – Currently we see closures ie Bed Bath and Beyond closing even more stores, Layoffs – Cineplex laying off 5,000 employees and many small businesses (Especially restaurants and gyms) on the brink of bankruptcy. Many have taken on huge debt loads, so interest rate hikes could be the final nail in the coffin.
- Global Conditions As I mentioned before, situations in certain countries may not have been on our radar before, but now every situation must be and I used Crypto Currency as an example.
This is a very tricky market at this point in time. While in a lot of parts of the world we could go back to a C/DN next week, Canada remains in a Confirmed Down, but not as negative, and Europe (Bullish Divergence) isn’t as negative. It has been in a Confirmed Up since Dec 27. In every case, I’ve mentioned that we must watch next week for further clarity.
Gold is a little easier It broke hearts once again. Failed at the 79 SMA and is falling again.
Crypto could be setting up for a possible nice profitable trade. Currently, it’s holding at a strong support line but could fall to an even stronger possible support We need to see Kazakhstan get settled or Elon Musk to tweet. Look at a graph of Stan’s BITF. Watch this for a possible trade.
As always nothing more than my 2 cents and I hope it’s of value and interest
USA
DOW JONES: Could be a Bull Flag Watch next week for clarification
NASDAQ: Pulled back to Major Support Watch next week for possible bounce or continued down move
S&P 500: Could pull back to the 79 SMA for the 3rd time Watch next week for clarification of the move
MKT TIMING: Holding the 79 SMA This has been a good support level lately
READ Views and Strategy
CANADA
PTSE: Holding the 79 SMA Next Week is key Will rally continue or fall back to 200 SMA or support
VENTURE: Still nothing to get excited about
MKT TIMING: Fell hard this week Could fall to support All indicators fell as well
READ Views and Strategy
EUROPE:
MKT TIMING: 65 SMA acting as support
READ Views (Can’t participate but could be a good educational opportunity for us all) Strategy Bullish Divergence
BRITAIN
MKT TIMING: 2 major support areas to watch. At this point higher highs and higher lows the last 2 weeks. Watch next week to determine direction
READ Views and Strategy
AUSTRALIA Read Views and Strategy (Views a very good read)
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