Guest Blogger signs


Well, my Off Season Market Curse continues unabated, and yes I’m starting to feel all the eyes glaring at me.  The good news is I’ll be back to work before you know it and the Highly Profitable Trading opportunities will abound. This week I want to highlight the true value of being with Vector Vest. (This will really be highlighted in my 2nd email). It doesn’t matter what type of trader we are VectorVest gives us all the tools we need such as Searches, Graphs, Timing Signals, Daily guidance by true pros but for me, the Greatest gift and this alone is worth far more than what they charge and that is the people.  Here are a few things I really appreciate:

  1. The weekly views essays by top pros all around the world
  2. All graphs but especially the Market Timing Graphs
  3. Being in Canada Stan “The Man” Heller alone is worth the price of admission. I hate when I have to work and can’t listen to his weekly Q&A’s
  4. VectorVest Nation. This is a worldwide network of exceptional traders, most of whom are more than willing to work together and share ideas, helping us all become better, more successful traders. I’ve mentioned several times that my dream is to set up a network of traders around the world to help keep us all informed as to anything that will help us become better traders. (My 2nd post below will highlight the true benefits of this).

Also, this post will highlight how I’m changing my trading thesis and why.

For now, though, let’s look at the markets:

USA  MTI 65  BSR  35

DOW JONES:         Failed twice at the 79 SMA  Still in a channel but selling volume getting stronger into holiday weekend showing nervousness about holding positions due to uncertainty on many levels.

NASDAQ:                Still weak and could easily fall back to strong support

S&P 500:                 In a wedge. Can support hold? Time will tell

MKT TIMING:          Also in a wedge  Watch to see if support can hold.  We are close to “Finding a Bottom” levels so watch and see what really happens

Read Views and Strategy

CANADA        MTI 73  BSR  35  ETI Rose 1 point

PTSE:                      In a wedge.  Could fall to strong support and the 200 SMA but selling vol is weak so watch and see.

VENTURE:              In a tight wedge. Like the PTSE selling vol is weak

MKT TIMING:          Failed at the 79 SMA and fell all week

READ Views and Strategy

Australia  MTI 80  BSR  30  ETI Stable

MKT Timing:            Recent weakness after rally off strong support.  Watch for clear direction

BRITAIN    MTI 80  BSR  55  ETI Stable

MKT TIMING:           Watch to see if support can hold

READ Views and Strategy

EUROPE   MTI 84  BSR  63  ETI Stable  (USA ETI rose 1 point)

MKT TIMING:       Playing with 2 support levels  Watch to see if they can hold

GOLD   Gold Industry Graph failed at the 200SMA twice in the last 3 months.  In a channel between support and the 200SMA.  Selling vol is weak. HGU pulled back from the previous high but again on weak vol.  Gold held the $1,900 level and everything looking bullish.

Keys for Success In Trading and Life
I have mentioned many times, to be successful in trading and even in life you need to have not only the ability to adapt to changing circumstances but also the wisdom to recognize the need to change and adapt.  Two things I’ll always be grateful to my parents for is developing an IQ higher than an empty pop can and ALWAYS treat others with kindness and respect.  As a result, I have a Rock Solid business with outstanding clientele and several dear friends. By writing these emails each week, I put myself out there for all kinds of potential abuse, but it also puts me in touch with some truly amazing people.  I can’t thank everyone enough for the amazing support and encouragement I receive, so this week I thought I’d share some info I get on a regular basis and how it helps me in my trading.

Many know me as the Buy and Hold Guy and mainly focusing on Online Shopping and Payment Systems ie Debit/Credit.  Nothing has changed in this regard, however, I will be changing percentages of cash and where I will be deploying that capital.  First, let me say at 68 years old (soon to be 69) I no longer have a desire for a lot of stress in life, so I have adapted my Trading thesis . I want to be in a position that no matter what the market does I know what to do and when to do it (with the help of VectorVest and My VectorVest Nation contacts and my good friends). So here is what I received this week alone.

  1. A good friend who is a department manager of the only supermarket in a very big tourist area.  They need 120 staff to run the store efficiently.  They currently are down to 60 and can’t find anyone of any value to work.  The result is they have had to adjust the store hours and close early due to extreme staffing shortages.
  2. An email from a good friend and member of VectorVest nation in Florida. Walgreens (a large pharmacy chain in the USA) is closed on weekends because nobody will work on weekends. They can’t even get enough people for midweek shifts.
  3. An email from a truly amazing contact in Europe (It had an amazing amount of valuable info so I’m going to try to summarize it here for time)  Europe is in a huge mess. There are truck blockades there that aren’t in the news here that are causing problems.

Bulgaria  Everyone is leaving and very few are having kids, meaning no workers in the future

Croatia   Again no one having kids

Romania  All doctors and nurses are leaving and going to Italy and England.  They were really strict on outsiders coming in. Now they are begging for immigrants but too late

Inflation is soaring in Europe like everywhere else in the world due to labour shortages, climate issues, leading to smaller harvests,

Consumer price for gas rose 94.5% in Q4

Soybean and Palm oil is the most expensive in 20 years again due to labour shortages and harvest difficulties. (you may ask so?)  It is a big deal because this leads to higher industrial production prices.  All oils except Veg oil rose 18% in Dec alone.

Back here at home restrictions are starting to be lifted but I’ve been told from people all over Ontario you can’t get a reservation because they have no idea how many workers will show up on any given day so they don’t know how much business they will be able to handle

Other things I see.  Many parents have worked hard and built very successful businesses from the ground up only to be destroyed quickly by their kids (example the $4 billion Libfeld real estate empire)

The violent “Highly organized” attack on the Coastal Gas Link site in BC where employees were threatened and millions of dollars of damage was done.

Frito lay was hiking prices due to increased costs and Loblaws said NO. Result Frito lay will not be shipping any product to any loblaws stores. This will affect both Loblaws and Pepsico earnings. Apparently this is happening a lot as Food Inflation surges to a rate not seen in over a decade and CPI levels not seen in 30 years

Recently Facebook saw the biggest 1-day drop in history of the market,   This week we saw companies’ shares drop 20% and more in one day ie ROKU

Because I’m trying to set up and finance my retirement, I would need more than a hug if a stock I owned fell 20% or more in a day.

Therefore, I’m positioning myself to remove as much stress as I can while still getting the returns needed.  I want to be in a position that I don’t care what the market does. I know exactly what to do to get the returns needed to ” Get this Party Started”

I also know what worked in the past doesn’t necessarily work in the future so what I have done is create several Watchlists in the USA and Canada, so no matter what the market does ie goes up or down I can profit. You will see I have a range of ETFs (less stressful than trying to find the one good stock) that in the last 10 years I wouldn’t consider, but going forward I want them handy in case. (Note these are market ETFs eliminating the need to figure out what Industry is hot at any given time)  Yes, I’m lazy, thus Buy and Hold.

See the attachments showing the potential of this system.

I only need to do 2 things:

  1. Identify the Market Trend as quickly as I can  (I can use help on this one,  Stan had an excellent Views essay this weekend to help in this regard)
  2. Identify the ETF (s) that will allow me to profit best from the move. (Because I already have the watchlists prebuilt, this will take very little time)

As always nothing more than my 2 cents and I hope it’s of value and interest