Written by: Mike Simonato, Ontario Presenter: “Investing for the Long Term”, presented to the Feb. 6, 2021 International Online Forum, you can watch by CLICKING HERE.
Why This Time may be Different.
As we all know, markets go up and down, sometimes through crooked manipulation ie Crypto market this past year, certain events ie Covid or just normal everyday things like profit-taking, need money for Xmas Shopping etc. This time may be different and here are some reasons why:
- Global Supply issues. This includes Container costs soaring, No Drivers to get products to market ie David Paul said during VectorVest’s Oct 2 Online Forum, https://youtu.be/8ZepjQG58Zw, only 20% of gas stations in England have fuel because no drivers to deliver. Loblaws, no idea if or when a truck will come and what will be on it. Home Hardware, “Our Warehouses are a disaster”
- Severe droughts all over the world affecting food production. Farmers fed up with low prices are refusing to sell to the meat processing plants. This all will help fuel continued food price inflation.
- We all know of the chip shortage affecting car/ truck production causing a massive sales plunge. What isn’t in the news is there was just a big fire at a huge chip production facility in Japan making the situation even worse and leading to layoffs of Honda workers in the USA. Even if and when they do get up and running again, Toyota has first dibs on any chips.
- Evergrande has missed 2 debt payments in the last week As well, Mortgage rates have risen sharply the week of Sept 24
- China is owed $385 Billion by 165 countries including “Hidden Debt” by poor countries
- Covid deaths are now 5 million worldwide and 700,000 in the USA, and this number continues to rise.
- Consumer and Govt debt is at all-time highs and growing every day
- Healthcare Ontario Eye exams are all canceled for seniors and those with special circumstances because the govt won’t continue to pay optometrists. My mom has had a broken neck for close to 3 months now. She had Xrays taken to get the collar off after 2 months, but the specialist has disappeared. She went for a new set yesterday but there was no one qualified at the hospital to take the collar off so no Xrays Let’s not even mention Alberta.
- The Level of Stupid in people. The restaurants in Ontario can finally open for limited indoor dining, but they are receiving so many serious threats many have removed the tables and chairs preventing indoor dining for their safety and that of their customers. This will really highlight the progression of Stupid (Evolution)
For businesses: Nobody can find good workers. Even if you could can you get the product, even if you pass those 2 barriers, can the really stupid people let you operate your business? These are indeed challenging times for business owners and could lead to a market collapse.
Anyway, nothing more than my 2 cents and I hope it’s of interest and value
Now for the Markets:
USA C/DN MTI 0.80
DOW JONES: Bounced off weak support on big vol Friday RT still below 1 20 SMA still below the 79 SMA so still weak
NASDAQ: Bounced off upward trend support line Lower Buying Vol than selling vol. See what next week brings
S&P 500: Last 2 days held support but still in a downtrend
MKT TIMING: Halfway between the 89 and 200 SMA; 3 touches on support in the last 2 weeks but still in a downtrend
READ Views and Strategy
CANADA C/DN MTI 76 BSR 26
PTSE: While it was up Friday, weak candle and weak vol There is a support line, See if it holds
VENTURE: Still a weak graph Low vol as well
MKT TIMING: Still below the 79 SMA Last 2 days held a line but weak candle
READ Views and Strategy
AUSTRALIA C/DN Read Views and Strategy
BRITAIN C/DN Read Views and Strategy