Written by: Mike Simonato, Ontario Presenter: “Investing for the Long Term, presented to the Feb. 6, 2021 International Online Forum, you can watch by CLICKING HERE.
The re-opening is slowly taking place depending on where you live in the world. All is not equal ie USA looks to be fully re-opened whereas India had its biggest 1-day number of deaths at 6.185 Here is the biggest concern I see going forward. A Calgary hospital has 22 cases of the Delta Variant, and 10 of those are fully vaccinated. If this Delta variant takes hold causing a 4th wave and another lockdown, then turn out the lights, the party is over.
Also, the opening isn’t providing an equal recovery ie in Ontario you need an “Outside storefront” to open. This means malls must remain closed. With the enormous overhead of being in a mall, how long can those businesses survive? In the future, are malls going to be a thing of the past?
People were out big time yesterday spending lots of money but what I saw, it was going to Big Box Retailers with the line-ups at Home Sense and Winners being the longest.
Another issue facing the economy is nobody can find people willing to work, especially in the Restaurant/ Bar industry. Many still can’t open due to lack of staff. I talked to a client yesterday who has a high-end office business and even he said he can’t find anybody. In the USA, a record 4 million people quit their jobs because they felt they could do better.
Another reason businesses can’t find workers is the behaviour of customers. Airlines have had more instances of violent/ unruly customers in the first 6 months of this year than in the entire decade previously and these stories are being told across the board and why all the good ones are quitting. Even I’m dumping any customer who is rude/ disrespectful/ or who puts my health at risk in any way at all. Hate crimes are also spiking affecting the economy. In my 68 years I’ve never seen it so blatant and so regularly, almost like it’s part of daily life now.
Concerns for Canada Specific:
- Keystone Pipeline officially dead. Albertans on the hook for $1.3 Billion Dollars Michigan Pipelines looks like the same outcome
- Investors are pulling out of all LNG Projects which again will cost Canada dearly
- USA is in the process of passing a series of laws making it so no Cruise ships have to stop in Canada. If this happens, the Multi-Billion dollar hit to Canada will make it the biggest blow to the Canadian economy during the pandemic
- Canadian consumers are now carrying $2.1 Trillion in debt
Who are the most productive countries in the world by Producing the Most GDP while working:
- IRELAND
- Norway
- Switzerland
- Luxembourg
- Germany
- USA
- Denmark
- France
- Netherlands
- Belgium
This week Gold was unable to stay above $1,900 per oz and the $CDN was unable to stay above 83 cents.
As always nothing more than my 2 cents and I hope it’s of value and interest. Stay safe everyone
Now for the Markets:
USA
DOW JONES: Stuck in a channel with RT falling the last 2 weeks
NASDAQ: Climbing its way back. Near the top of the Wedge
S&P 500: New high on Friday but again no strength RT is falling but not as steep as the Dow
MKT TIMING: New high on Friday but again no strength 3 Indicators also rising
READ Views, Strategy
CANADA
PTSE: Continues to power higher and RT turned up yet volume is dropping
VENTURE: Price has stayed flat after breaking above the 79 SMA. Still waiting to see strength Vol also falling
MKT TIMING: Continues higher along with the 3 Indicators
READ Views and Strategy
EUROPE Read Views and Strategy
BRITAIN: Read Views (similar to USA) and Strategy
AUSTRALIA: Read Views and Strategy
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