Written by: Mike Simonato, Ontario Presenter: “My Three Friends”, Dec. 3, 2016, VectorVest International Online User Group (Click here to View: My Three Friends and “Investing for the Long Term, presented to the Feb. 6 2021 International Online Forum, you can watch by CLICKING HERE.
The TOP IS IN
As I have written before, there are many ways to recognize a top. While looking at graphs is the key, and as we’ll see when we look at the markets, there continue to be many warning signs which are becoming more prevalent with each passing week. Here are some other signs I’m seeing:
- Have you ever seen so many bubbles: A. Crypto Currency – Record highs and everyone (Countries and companies like Mastercard) trying to get in
- Housing Bubbles Calgary was in tough shape, Collingwood and Muskoka are insane with sales and prices. Same in USA New Yorkers fled to Georgia and Florida, Everyone is fleeing California and going to Texas and adjoining states buying up everything. Celebs continue to sell their properties (Justin Bieber at a huge loss)
- Stock Market Bubble Between Govt intervention, Redditt groupies etc have made the markets insanely profitable, if they were played right
When everyday people are entering the market, the run is over. I talked to a long-time friend today who works in a supermarket. She said all you here in the lunchroom is how everybody is buying stocks and they love how easy it is. When I hear this, I know the top is in.
As I mentioned earlier in other Blog articles, I will be watching the Q4 2020 earnings and the Q1 2021 earnings to look for those who have odds of surviving and those who likely won’t. Besides the expected parade of bankruptcies here is what I’m seeing:
- Crescent Point bought all Shells Oil patch assets as Shell is getting out of Oil and Gas and into Lower Carbon Fuels
- Ovintio (Formally Encana) sold its CDN Assets to reduce debt
- Peyto Exploration bought 2 assets (Properties)
- Canadian Tire had blowout earnings but then announced the complete closure of National Sports
- Wal Mart Blow out Earnings but weak guidance
For me personally:
Apple Not worried. Well run, well-capitalized and diversified in all the right ways.
Amazon Not worried. Online sales continue to skyrocket through all age groups. Bought 2 fleets of planes to help cope with deliveries. Bought a major competitor to
Shopify further solidifying their position. Running well thought out ads improving corporate image. Continuing to do everything right. Will watch to see how Amazon’s latest move affects.
Still looking to Buy on the dip ETSY and PYPL (Paypal)
New Considerations – BLOK Special Thanks to Tom Cauley and Bob Turnbull for this one.
Also looking at certain Thematic ETFs especially Ark ETFs as well as Clean Energy
Also watching the $CDN Rising nicely back up to 80 cents I’m watching to see if it can break above that key level.
AS always, nothing more than my 2 cents and I hope it is of value and interest.
DOW JONES: Price flat RT below 1
NASDAQ: Price holding the 20 SMA RT below the channel
S&P 500: Price holding the 8 EMA RT below 1
MKT TIMING: Price Flat RT and BSR fell but bounced off support MTI fell First Red tile this week
Read Views, Strategy, Climate Earnings Indicator rose again
PTSE: Price respecting 3 & 8 EMA RT below both channels ending a mixed week
VENTURE: Mixed week but Price and RT still looking good
MKT TIMING: Price flat the last 9 trading days BSR, RT and MTI fell
READ Views, Strategy. Climate Earnings Indicator flat again
Australia Lots of Red. Read Views and Strategy
Britain Read Views and Strategy
How to easily profit when we see a strong market:
Lately the VENTURE has been on a nice run. It bounced off the 79 SMA Nov 20 Go to Watchlist Viewer – TSX- TSX Venture 50
Quick Test from Nov 20 TSX Venture 50 up 82.75% Mkt 11.30% Just a thought.