Written by: Mike Simonato, Ontario Presenter: “Investing for the Long Term, presented to the Feb. 6, 2021 International Online Forum, you can watch by CLICKING HERE.
On Wednesday most of Ontario moves into the next stage of opening back up (Except Waterloo region which will continue in lockdown). While this should lead to jubilation going into Canada Day (I Get my hair cut and coloured Wed AM ) It doesn’t feel that way on the street. While people are out and about shopping, dining on patios and looking forward to their first haircut in months, I don’t see the happy feel on the street. Here are some reasons as they may affect the economy and thus trading decisions:
- Let’s start with the biggie. They have searched the grounds of 2 Residential Schools in Canada. Thus far they have found just under 1,000 unmarked graves of children. I don’t even want to think of the numbers when they get to Ontario and Quebec. As more unmarked graves are discovered it could lead to Sanctions against Canada and a lowered standing of Canada in the world’s eyes which could affect Canadian imports and exports.
- Attitudes of people. I see masks in businesses only. ie I was working on a house Fri and different trades etc were coming for meetings etc and no masks and no social distancing. A 26-year-old where I live has Covid and was told to Self Isolate for 14 days and of course, he didn’t he was out and about spreading Covid. Flight attendants are saying the number of unruly passengers is out of control, as is the lack of respect for police. The number of good people quitting their jobs continues to soar. Add to this the fact that nobody can find any good workers means businesses of all genres are really struggling.
- Debt Loads. The reopening in Ontario is gradual. What this means is even if you can open there are limits to the number of customers you can have in your store at any given time (Big Box stores are biggest beneficeries). Small businesses have taken on an insane amount of debt trying to survive plus there are still a lot who can’t open at all ie Malls, Gyms etc. When this is all done will the malls survive? Hudson Bay just lost a lawsuit forcing it to pay all rent owed to the malls during the time they have been closed. It has also been reported Canadians have taken on an insane amount of debt (Biggest is Mortgage Debt) but also many got pets during the pandemic and are finding out how expensive a pet can be and thus Credit Card debt is soaring again.
- Lawsuits These are really soaring. In the USA already seeing these soaring ie Vaccinated vs Unvaccinated. Can employers fire unvaccinated? Can workers be forced back to the office or is a hybrid working arrangement in the works? What the Pandemic has taught us is the companies that can adapt do quite well.
On the Plus Side did I mention I’m getting my hair cut Wed. I’m expecting a 10 pound weight loss. On a more serious note, Alberta is finally catching a break with rising oil prices. Stan has always highlighted the importance of Dividends in Retirement. See in the Attachments how the Monthly Dividend Payers are doing both in Canada and the USA. (These performed the best by far this year when it comes to Dividends) Wealthy Investors Expect a 17.5% ARR on their money but if they took the time to listen to Stan, Bob, Tom, Margaret or any of the other excellent Forum Presentaions, they would realize they could do even better with VectorVest.
As always nothing more than my 2 cents and I hope it’s of value and interest
Now for the markets Summary (Ride the Bull until he kicks you off always remembering the Bull can be a Very Dangerous animal)
DOW JONES: Holding the 79 SMA Now can it break to a new high or a Triple Top Have to wait and see
NASDAQ: New high Thursday Big selling Friday
S&P 500: Broke to New High
MKT TIMING: New High Friday Everything else rising nicely
Read Views and Strategy
PTSE: Still Rising nicely. Want breakout to new high
VENTURE: Still can’t break above 79 SMA and light vol so still no interest
MKT TIMING: New High Everything else looking reasonably good but RT still below 1
READ Views (Stan continues to amaze) and Strategy
EUROPE, BRITAIN and AUSTRALIA Read Views and Strategy (Most urging caution)
NOTE Attachments also show how Crypto Currency ETFs have done YTD. Also in the interest of honesty, I include the basket of stocks from my Forum Presentation to show YTD performance.