Written by: Mike Simonato, Ontario Presenter: “Investing for the Long Term, presented to the Feb. 6, 2021 International Online Forum, you can watch by CLICKING HERE.
Crypto currency Elon Musk Tweets a breakup meme and Bitcoin tanks. Then Jack Dorsey comes out and says it’s our future. Then China announces it’s going to let its inhabitants trade crypto currency. This should make for lots of volatility but also some nice profits for those skilled enough to play it right. (That’s not me)
WED was a big selloff day for both GOLD and the $CDN after both rose above key levels. Both rose again Thurs and Fri with big up days Fri. Time will tell if they can once again rise above the key levels and stay there this time. NOTE GOLD is stuck below the 200 SMA
Now for the serious stuff:
G7 reach a historic Global Tax Reform Deal
Canada lost 68,000 jobs as reported Friday however 632,700 positions sit unfilled. This is a serious problem. There is no shortage of work yet nobody can get anybody to work. The situation is now a lot worse than Pre Pandemic. Businesses are having to turn down jobs and of course, people can’t get anybody to come and do jobs. For me, I’m booked until August.
As a result of the above, the USA is trying to lure all skilled workers to leave Canada and go south for bigger paydays and, as they say, better quality of life.
This is what is going to make this recovery different:
- No workers to fill job openings
- Supply shortages ie can’t get semiconductor chips to build Cars/ Trucks etc
Now for some SERIOUS CONCERNS:
We all pay attention to different lines, technical indicators, noise from talking heads and we can easily get distracted from the Canaries nobody talks about
- TESLA in 2020 the darling of the market. As I wrote though they were only making money selling credits not cars and their supply of credits was about to run out. One example of their current situation, China is their second-biggest market. Orders dropped by 50% from April to May. As a result look at the chart for the decline and has been flirting with major support. If it breaks below this level, it could get ugly.
- HOV A builder in the USA (THX to Michael Ellis for pointing this out) With Building being so strong, I know they are dealing with major supply issues but had a good earnings report and good guidance yet look at the huge selloff Thurs and Friday on big volume
These are both big high flyers in 2020 but look at them both now. So while the markets continue to soar please don’t ignore the Canaries.
Nothing more than my 2 cents and I hope it’s of value and interest.
Now for the Markets:
DOW JONES: Watching for a breakout to a new high
NASDAQ: Still in the middle of the Wedge Fell back t the 79 SMA and bounced Little stronger vol than most markets
S&P 500: Like DOW Close to a new high
MKT TIMING: Same as the rest Slight pullback and now looking for a new high
READ Views and Strategy
PTSE: Still rising nicely however vol is dropping
VENTURE: Price finally broke above the 79 SMA and RT rising nicely but again falling vol
MKT TIMING: Everything continues to rise with possible room to run
READ VIEWS and Strategy
EUROPE Read Views and Strategy
BRITAIN Read Views and Strategy
AUSTRALIA Read Views and Strategy