Written by: Mike Simonato, Ontario Presenter: “Investing for the Long Term, presented to the Feb. 6, 2021 International Online Forum, you can watch by CLICKING HERE.
Lots of news to get to that can move mkts this week. The only real stress is my business which is so insanely busy, I’ve never seen anything like it. I will also say though that this is the first time since I can remember that I’ve been this concerned. Note, the only thing that will affect me is if I don’t abandon my Buy and Hold Strategy fast enough before the elevator hits free fall. Here are a few things helping to shape a concerning picture:
- 2nd key investor pulls out of Kitimat LNG project putting it and the industry at risk
- Many big money players pulling out of Oilsands
- Oilsands and Pipelines finding it very hard to get insurance as prices go up and fewer insurers willing to get involved in the field
- USA seeks to double tariffs on CDN Softwood lumber
- Ford halting production of the F150 and other models due to continuing shortage of semiconductor chips. NOTE: Ford only makes money because of F150 sales
- As workplaces reopen lawsuits will begin. ie a large number refuse to get vaccine. Can they be fired? Can workers be forced to go back to the office etc?
- Ontario announced their re-opening plan and a brief summary. It will be August or Sept before a lot of businesses will start earning any kind of real income. Prior to May 21st the average business had accumulated $200,000 in debt trying to stay afloat. That number will be substantially higher before any real money begins to flow again. NOTE Hair salons won’t reopen until sometime in July so in the interest of protecting everyone’s eyesight I won’t consider any Zoom calls until I can get a jug of colour and a substantial trim
- Re the Lockdown: Where I live and work you would not know there was a lockdown. I stopped on the way home for a couple of groceries and a couple in a Porsche pulled up beside asking direction to the beach and a few other spots. On the 6 o clock news, they showed all kinds of people going against direction saying openly “Screw it I’m going to live my life”
- If you thought things were getting more expensive you’re right. It’s called “Inflation Tax”. On a salary of $60,000 the “Inflation Tax is $3,715
- Hamilton is the 3rd least affordable housing market in North America . It is 50% more expensive than the median income can afford.
- Cases of hate crimes is exploding. I know we see cases on the news ie Asian Hate crime, hate crimes against Jews etc but here are some realities you don’t hear about. Amazon is expanding a warehouse in CT. They just found the 7th noose on sight in 2 weeks. Where I work many families from India/ Pakistan are moving in and the old-school locals aren’t impressed.
- I went into one new subdivision this week and found red swastikas painted on the doorsteps of a number of houses. Never seen anything like it ever before.
- On top of all the day-to-day fun California is facing a major drought with severe water shortages and India just had a 7.3 earthquake. so we are far from out of danger yet
1, Sudden Rise in Global Interest Rates
- Stock Market Crash
- Weakening Global Trade
- Possible collapse of Bitcoin ????
For those who have some free time this weekend, it may be good to Read Stan’s views and be prepared for no matter what the future holds/
As always nothing more than my 2 cents and I hope it’s of value and interest.
USA C/DN but could change on Wed
DOW JONES: Tight channel the last 9 days Volume around average
NASDAQ: Continues to stay in the wedge pattern. Vol weakening this week
S&P 500: Like the Dow In a channel the last 2 weeks
MKT TIMING: In a very tight channel between 79 SMA and Resistance
READ: Just what the Investor ordered, Strategy
PTSE: Continues nice orderly uptrend holding the 40 SMA all the way up
VENTURE: Been in a channel since March Need a strong breakout above resistance and the 79 SMA before I get too excited
MKT TIMING: Price went nowhere this week but still above 65 SMA so C/Up
READ Views, Strategy Climate. Money invested in foreign equities 21.2 Money invested in CDN equities 3.2 quite a big spread
NOTE: $CDN tried to break above 83 cents this week and failed Watch to see if it can break through this very serious hurdle
EUROPE: Read Views and Strategy
BRITAIN: Read Views,and Strategy
AUSTRALIA Read Strategy Could get a C/Up Tues
I have added some watchlists to give an idea on how we can prepare for the future. ie CDN Green Energy has had a bad year but Energy has had an amazing year. POT 3 have done very well but the rest not so well. I also enclosed a potential CDN Dividend Portfolio. Lastly I enclosed the Retirement home watchlist. Hey at 68 I want to be able to make a sound decision when it’s time.
Click to Enlarge
Have a good holiday weekend everyone. Now it’s finally time to get my first vaccine so I’m off.
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