Thanks everyone in our fantastic VectorVest Community for a terrific turnout today and outstanding participation in our mid-summer International Online Forum. In case you missed it or you want to review step-by-step how to run the manual backtest, just click on this link for the replay: Click for the Forum Replay! You can pause and fast-forward the video.
As I presented today, I often like to run a Manual Backtest even though I enjoy the benefits of the Autotimer with its built-in market timing signals. Below are a few reasons why I like the flexibility of the manual backtest:
- I like to use the MTI’s historical overbought and oversold benchmark levels to fine-tune my buying and selling rules. I don’t like to buy a dividend stock as a long-term hold when the market is oversold for example, even if the Color Guard is Bullish. So instead if the MTI is above 1.2 in Canada or 1.4 in the US, I might buy a stock with a good short term set-up, but set a tight Stop Loss. You can test your ideas about the effectiveness of that strategy using a manual Backtest.
- I look to study a graph before deciding to buy or sell a stock. You open a graph right from the Backtester WatchList button.
- I like to tighten my stops a bit when the MTI is oversold and/or we’re starting to see bearish signals appear such as the RT Kicker Combo. Editing stops for individual stocks or the entire basket is a breeze in manual backtesting mode.
- I sometimes like to change my Search at different phases of the market. I might be running a test to fine-tune my retirement trading plan, but I might choose a bottom fishing search such as TSX Composite/RT when replacing a stock when the MTI is below 0.60 and rising. The manual backtest gives me the flexibility to use different searches within the same backtest.
Stock Chat. As always, our members identified several stock ideas worthy of consideration of our WatchLists for further study. I apologize I couldn’t get to them all but here are a few that we discussed and analyzed as a group:
QSR – Don likes this one because if meets David Paul’s recommended values and Value Zone Investing Graph set-up (see the May Forum replay at https://vectorvestca.azurewebsites.net/. Don says an investor can buy the shares or trade a call options such as the JAN 70 strike Call.
Fred is following copper miners such as TECK.B (CA) and FCX (US). Both are on the rise along with copper prices.
Neeraj got a lot of great feedback on his recent stock idea for the Hong Kong market: 0135.hk (Kunlun Energy). The industry group is rising nicely and so is Kunlun Energy.
Jim suggested FDX as a seasonal plan starting in September. David G. likes NVDA and the aerospace and defense stocks. Al is looking for GUD and PHO in Canada to deliver big returns in the months ahead, they’ve done it before. Dan had us look at ATA and several of our members said it looked pretty good.
I totally messed up on Jody’s suggestion that she emailed me in advance of the webinar. My apologies to Jody. Her idea is Standard Lithium (SLL), and for some reason I put SSL in the WatchList. A miner at least, but totally different space. Lithium stocks haven’t broken out the way many of expected when we asked VectorVest several months ago to set up a separate industry group for Lithium miners. SLL is one of the newest entries in VectorVest so not much price history, but RT is rising nicely. It is lagging its industry peers in a number key VectorVest metrics such as RV and RS.
Please view the video replay for a more complete review, and also, join us for Tuesday for regular weekly SOTW Q&A webcast. I’m sure we’ll have time to review the stocks I missed such as SHOP and the Banks!
VectorVest Global Markets Review. Leading the way among VectorVest countries is Hong Kong with a gain of 14.79% YTD by the VectorVest Composite/HK. The US VVC is still rising at 9.2% YTD while Canada at 2.04% YTD is the laggard. Catch the replay for all the details.
Saturday, Sept. 2 Forum. Once again I hope everyone enjoyed today’s Forum. Next month on Saturday, Sept. 2 we’re back with guest presenters from our VectorVest Community. Dr. Gord Nixon of BC and Mike Simonato of ON will present on the topic, Strategic Investing With VectorVest’s High CI Indicator. Mark your calendars, because you don’t want to miss it!
To View previous Online Forum video replays, click on the recording links below:
May 6, 2017 – Weekly Zone Pattern Recognition by David Paul, VectorVest UK Managing Director and Energy Sector Review by Michael Wuetherick, Energy Insder and VectorVest User Group Leader, Red Deer, AB.
September 10 – Trading Pullbacks: Possible entry and exit points combining candlesticks and the 10 EMA and 30 EMA by Wendy Johnson, Arkansas User Group Leader; and 5-Steps to Profitable Bottom Fishing by Stan Heller.
April 2 – Star Search Revisited and Dr. Barbara Star’s Favourite Charting Method by Dr. Barbara Star.
Dec 5 – Simplify Your Trading Using the 3/8-EMA by Petra Hess; Portfolio Management Using WatchList Graphs by Mike Simonato; Energy Sector Analysis by Michael Wuertherick; Bank Sector Analysis by Marcia Elgie and Emanuel Althuis; and Business Services Industry Group Analysis by Sandy Cook.
Posted by Stan Heller, Consultant, VectorVest Canada
DISCLAIMER: The information contained in this Blog is for education and information purposes only. Example trades must not be considered as recommendations. You should always do your own analysis and invest based on your own risk tolerance, investment style, goals and time horizon. There are risks involved in investing and only you know your financial situation, risk tolerance, financial goals and time horizon.