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Expect An Evil Market Short Term – My Two Cents by Mike Simonato

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Written by:  Mike Simonato, Ontario Presenter: “My Three Friends”, Dec. 3, 2016, VectorVest International Online User Group (Click here to View: My Three Friends)

Now the fun begins:)   Here is what I’m watching:  I expect a very evil mkt in the short term  for 2 reasons:

  1. The Pros are poed that so many “Retail Traders” have gotten into the mkt during COVID.  I expect to see more days where people’s stops are triggered to discourage the retail investor to ever get back into the mkt.
  1. Analysts are concerned the 2nd wave has started and the true numbers may be worse than reported.

I included the USA and CDN Retirement Portfolios Quick Test for this past Week. As I mentioned previously, my longest-held trades are Apple and Amazon.  I also have been encouraging Shopify right out of the gate.  This is a process I go through to confirm that I’m still on the right track or if I’m considering adding a Buy and Hold stock.

USA and CDN Retirement June 12 2020

 

 

 

 

If you need an indicator of how crazy this market is, in the USA the Wed BSR, Buy/Sell Ratio, was 11.46.  Thurs 4.87, Fri 6.44.  Love Stability.

USA   MTI   161  BSR   6.44

DOW JONES:    Rolled over at resistance. False breakout at 200 SMA. Fell to another line of support just below the 20 SMA, just enough to trigger a lot of stops. Doji right in the middle of Thur’s candle.

NASDAQ:           False breakout above resistance then fell back to support and the 20 SMA  Fri candle stronger than Dow

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S&P 500:            Nicer run then fell right back to the 200 SMA.  Below the 20 SMA so again stops triggered Fri went below 200 SMA briefly triggering more stops then rose and stopped right at the T-Line (8 EMA).

MKT Timing:      Stopped dead at resistance then fell right back to a line in the sand Thurs and Fri. Clear Doji Fri and closed just below the 20 SMA.

READ Views, Strategy, (Interesting Strategy of the Week), Climate (Earnings Indicator fell yet again)

CANADA:    MTI 162    BSR  4.15

PTSE:              Failed at the 200 SMA but held the 20 SMA.  Fri closed below the T-Line but right at support

VENTURE:      Stopped at stubborn resistance then fell to weak support but held. Friday closed below the T-Line

MKT TIMING:  Failed at 200 SMA but held weak support and just above the 79 SMA.

READ VIEWS (Another gem from Stan), Strategy and Climate, (Earnings indicator fell again and now in Bear Mkt Territory.

REAL – Stopped at same resistance it hit 3 times in a little over 2 weeks but is holding the 20 SMA.

GOLD:   Just sitting patiently waiting for its turn to shine again.

As always. nothing more than my 2 cents and I hope it is of interest and value.

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