Written by: Mike Simonato, Ontario Presenter: “Investing for the Long Term, presented to the Feb. 6, 2021 International Online Forum, you can watch by CLICKING HERE.
The Canaries continue to sing and more are joining the chorus, Here are this week’s new additions:
- With Ford and GM already shutting down production due to chip shortages, now Toyota has joined in by cutting production by 40-60%. Also GM will take a $1.6 Billion charge to fix defective batteries in the Chevy Volt.
- USA Retail Sales fell 11%, a huge drop.
- Govt warnings are causing a great deal of concern, including Govt and Personal debt on both sides of the border.
- Border closure into the USA extended until Sept 21, hurting USA Border towns.
- While the Mkts had up and own moves (Battle of the Buyers and Sellers), the result was Mkts around the world fell this week.
- Covid Numbers are rising again, causing more lockdowns around the world and fears of another lockdown in North America.
- Inflation will be around for a while yet. Due to drought, wildfires etc, Groceries are expected to continue to rise. While Oil has fallen from $75 to $62 per barrel, our gas prices have gone up 10 cents per litre. Lumber has gone from $1700 to $400 yet lumber prices haven’t fallen to match.
- All businesses are facing the same challenges 1. Supply Issues 2, Can’t get good workers 3. Business has dried up. Everyone I talk to says business is really slow.
While volumes should be weak the next few weeks, we want to WATCH the VIX Very Closely going forward. The VIX shows the level of ups and downs. This week the VIX was starting to get up to levels of concern but fell hard today (Down over 6%) When the VIX gets above 25 the price swings can get big whereas if it’s below 20 the price swings will be more subdued. I think Sept could be a very interesting month.
Strongly encourage reading the CDN and Britain Views this week.
As always, nothing more than my 2 cents and I hope it’s of value and interest.
Now for the MKTs
USA BSR 0.33 MTI 0.82
DOW JONES: Fell this week but held the 79 SMA. Selling vol higher than Buying Vol.
NASDAQ: Fell this week but strong buying Vol Thurs and Fri
S^P 500: Same as Nasdaq
MKT TIMING: Holding the 79 SMA All Indicators fell this week.
READ Views and Strategy
CANADA BSR 0.28
PTSE: Price fell this week Watch to see if 79SMA and Support can hold RT Really fell this week
VENTURE: Sitting at a Key Support level
MKT TIMING: Price is flat with still a ways to get to 65 SMA and a C/DN. All 3 Indicators fell as well
READ Views and Strategy
AUSTRALIA Read Views and Strategy
BRITAIN READ Views and Strategy