And they’re off! The All-Subscriber Portfolio challenge launched at the market open Tuesday, September 4th with all 881 contestants jockeying for position. It’s the largest VectorVest competition ever, and it’s off to an exciting start. The leader board is ever-changing, but already we can see trends emerging and we’re learning some valuable concepts and strategies.
What follows is my analysis of week one, ending September 7th. Entry ASPC 369 was in the lead with a solid gain of 11.52%. ASPC 369 is Quebec investor, Leslie J., who entered a US portfolio. While Les is first to acknowledge that “we are far from the finish line”, to put into perspective an 11.52% gain in just four trading days, the gain is almost twice the “annual goal” of most money managers.
How did Les come up with his trading plan? “The first thing I did when I received the dates was to graph the three months and print the results of these periods for 10 years. This suggested that you want the trading system to respond quickly to changing directions,” Les said. “After a few trials, I decided the Primary Wave gave me the best response when observing price and MACD.” Les then tested several searches including aggressive, bottom-fishing and technical searches using ProTrader, before selecting Ballistic New Highs for both Long and Short, “I probably executed 1,000 or more backtests, and studied the parameters that impacted the outcomes.” His tests revealed that the top 5 stocks gave him the highest percent winners out of 10 stocks.
“It’s just amazing what we have all learned over the years from the Heller webinars and VectorVest,” Les says. “It is also amazing when you start to research the analytical tools that are supplied by VectorVest, how well these tools were picked, and how well they work.”
So, what are some themes or lessons that we can glean from the early results?
Like Les, 21 of the Top 25 leaders are using the Primary Wave to take advantage of the faster moves in the market. Two in the Top 25 are using VectorVest’s newest timing feature called, “Purchase Window”, which allows investors to choose the times that positions can be opened by a trading system. Sixth place ASPC 415, for example, also a Canadian using the US database, is set to purchase 40 minutes after the market opens.
NUMBER OF POSITIONS
Most of the Top 25 chose 5 positions for both Long and Short. That makes good sense in a short-term competition where diversification to reduce volatility and risk isn’t necessarily a good thing.
POPULAR LONG SEARCHES
The Top 2 Portfolios at the close of the first week both used Ballistic New Highs and the 3rd place portfolio, ASPC 358, also a Canadian, used Marijuana Stocks, Canada’s hottest industry. Seattle Bear Beaters was chosen by six of the Top 25 leaders and another four chose Bottoms Up, both searches profiled in recent Strategies of the Week. Interesting that ASPC 795 in 24th place has almost the identical portfolio to Dr. DiLiddo’s Rabbit in 634th place and -1.20%. The biggest difference seems to be ASPC 795 used 10 positions for both Long and Short compared to Dr. D’s five. Woe is Dr. D.
POPULAR SHORT SEARCHES
This was a surprise. Six of the Top 25 leaders chose NoMoMoJo. Five chose Ballistic New Highs – Short and three chose Vern’s Vultures. With early reversals to the PW/Dn in both CA and US, competitors whose trading plans included Shorting are being rewarded early.
POPULAR STOP CRITERIA
Most of the Top 25 leaders chose the Profit Locker for both Long and Short, although the Price Target and Stops varied widely. The Shorts in general used far tighter Stop criteria.
For investors who prefer a high win-rate over absolute gains, fifteen entries closed the first week with 100% Winners. ASPC 114 was best among them with a gain of 6.65%, good for 16th place.
Click Here to follow the results of The All-Subscriber Portfolio Challenge. The default sort is Overall G/L, but you can click on any column heading to re-sort by Portfolio Name, Today’s G/L and Percent Winners. Click twice to sort in ascending order. You can also scroll up or down.
To examine a portfolio, click on the icon of your choice. Your three choices are the Performance Details including current holdings and equity curve; Trade History; and Trading System. To close the icon, click on the X in the upper right hand corner.
I highly recommend you regularly monitor the performance of both the leaders and the laggards in the All-Subscriber Portfolio Competition. IT’S AMAZING WHAT YOU CAN LEARN.
Great analysis and yes what a wonderful learning experience. Thanks
The competition generated a lot interest in VectorVest however I fail to see how it will help investors. Maybe traders but I fear it encourages the churning of
ones account. Hopefully others can show me otherwise because I want to be convinced.
I like the flexibility of VV. I have been experimenting with my own systems and used one for up markets and another for the current down market. I am hoping for a confirmed up on the Canadian Market when the trade deal is made. I have much more hope on my up system.