Our five CA VectorVest Model Portfolios without exception have done well in 2019, more than making up for losses during the market correction in the second half of 2018. You can see it by looking at the equity curves, and does not include any dividends, just capital gains. Let’s dig deeper to see if we can determine which portfolio might be right for you.
First, let’s quantify the capital gain and rate of return YTD in 2019. Each portfolio started with $100,000 on 1/3/2012 and I’ll use the end date of 7/2/2019.
Go to the Portfolios tab and make sure VV Portfolios at the top left is checked. Left click on Model Portfolio #1 Aggressive to highlight it. From there, left click on the Reports tab and from the dropdown menu, open, “View Summary Report.” The Gain / Loss % (YTD) is displayed, so make a note of it for the table below. I have added the YTD Dollar Gain in my table which I derived by subtracting the current Total Value from the Total Value as of January 2, 2019. You will see January 2, 2019 value in a grey bar at the top of the portfolio graph when you hover your mouse over the 1/2/2019 date.
Now that we know the process, let’s set out the comparisons in a table.
|Portfolio||YTD Dollar Gain||YTD Percent Gain|
|Model #1 Aggressive||$ 43,914.16||18.05 %|
|Model #2 Conservative||$ 19,960.28||7.01 %|
|Model #3 Retirement||$ 33,077.88||14.46 %|
|Model #4 Conservative||$ 44,258.93||16.30 %|
|Model #5 Prudent||$ 67,068.78||22.28 %|
The TSX is up about 14.8% YTD and the VVC/CA 13.2%, so these results are impressive. Even without including the dividends, 3 of the 5 portfolios beat the TSX and 4 of 5 beat the VectorVest Composite, VVC/CA. So, why doesn’t everyone just buy and sell along with Model Portfolio #5, our top gainer? Good question. We need to compare performance over a longer period and study a few other metrics. VectorVest makes it easy.
Back to the Portfolios tab, notice at the bottom left there is a tab labeled, “Portfolio Performance”. Click on it. A spreadsheet opens with data on all portfolios. Next, click on the dropdown arrow beside the “View All” button at top left and choose, “VectorVest Only”. Now you see the five Model Portfolios sorted by Compounded Rate of Return, CROR, a realistic number for the percent gain you might expect a year from now if you started the portfolio today, based on historical performance. Let’s put the key numbers in another table.
|Portfolio Name||Start Date||Total $ Value||% Winners||% Gain / Loss||Total $ Commission||% ARR||% CROR||% Max Drawdown|
Based on this long-term analysis. Model #5 continues to stand out with the largest dollar gain and 35.77% ARR. But it also has the lowest % winners, the highest Maximum Drawdown, and third highest commissions. Is that acceptable for you?
If capital preservation is your priority, Model #4 Conservative has achieved a solid 28.79% ARR with the lowest Maximum Drawdown, just 12.61%, and the fewest number of trades. The win-rate is good at 56.92%. However, if you like winning, Model #2 has managed an eye-popping 68.35% win-rate with the third best ARR, 27.30%. Model #3 has the lowest ARR at 21.59%, but if your primary goal is income and compounding dividends, the search criteria ensures solid dividend yields that are growing year over year.
I hope the above analysis whets your appetite to pay more attention to the Model Portfolios. You can follow the Action Plan of your favourite portfolio including the market timing and buys and sells. Or you can put the current holdings of one, two or more portfolios into a Watchlist and cherry pick when you’re ready to buy. Please call Support at 1-888-658-7638 if you need assistance.
Go to the Details button on each portfolio to study the complete trading system of each portfolio. You’ll soon discover the answer to the question; WHICH MODEL PORTFOLIO IS RIGHT FOR YOU?
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